Thank you for your work showing realistic numbers for QS efforts.
I am one that has started building a QS position and believe they are close to real potential, especially for small hand tools and phones. I believe also they do have real potential for autos and stationary storage and the timelines for it, reflecting what you have shown for GWH scale, which also corresponds with Powerco's Gigafactory in Canada for 2027.
I wonder what you think regarding the smaller size battery potential might be, the phones and power tools?
There's definitely a lot of potential, and I think this year could have a lot of actionable catalysts. Maybe not in terms of shipping at scale, but the future of the company 'hangs in the balance' of whether or not Cobra really works or not. Should be an exciting next few quarters.
The limiting factor for consumer electronics will be zero pressure performance. Alpha 2 samples already showed a lot of promise there, but I think that'll come later. EVs seem to by their primary focus right now. But consumer electronics (phones, power tools, et al) could be a great use of resources at QS-0 specifically because it will probably never be a massive manufacturing line.
And I think you're right. I think we all want it to be Salzgitter starting this year or next - definitely possible - but Canada in 2027 makes a ton of sense. We'll definitely learn a lot at this coming earnings call!
I wonder about your initial thoughts of the QS conference call yesterday?
I heard something I found curious when they continued to say they had to still continue to build out the "Cobra Line", yet also saying the following'
"With respect to process, in 2024, we made major strides with our next-generation Cobra separate and heat treatment process. The first version of Cobra equipment is already operating and thanks to dramatically better efficiency and process economics, Cobra will support increasing volumes of B1 samples in 2025 and serve as a key enabler to gigawatt or scale deployment of our technology.
On the product front, 2024 saw the debut of our industry-leading first product, the QSE-5 cell, boasting a combination of performance features, which demonstrates the compelling value of our technology platform. QSE-5 represents a no-compromise solid-state battery unmatched in the industry. In 2025, we will produce higher volume B1 samples of the QSE-5 product for our prospective launch customer and others."
Speaking specifically about the statement the first version of cobra already operating
Also the QS folks to willingly speak about Powerco and yet seemingly differentiate a different potential launch customer.
Any thoughts, am I looking too closes at their words?
A lot of good stuff came out of the call yesterday. I'm planning on doing a write up once I get a chance to go through it again and digest everything.
For your question on Cobra, my interpretation is that "Cobra", itself, is just the heat treatment step in the process. The rest of the production line (stacking, packaging, etc) needs to be either built out or modified to accommodate the faster speeds.
Regarding the anonymous new customers, I think that's just how it's done in the battery industry. It wouldn't surprise me if the new companies remain anonymous even after licensing deals are signed...maybe only becoming named after start of production of their own QS lines. My guess is that they do this because they have concurrent deals with other battery companies. Solid Power is teamed up with Ford, for example. If Ford were to sign a public deal with QS, it would probably damage their relationship with Solid Power. PowerCo is public because VW has been heavily invested in Quantumscape since QS was founded - so the relationship is already well known. Siva sounds serious about signing new customers this year, which is pretty exciting.
Also, there's a reddit community where I host a live discussion every quarter during the earnings call. There's tons of good stuff in there about the latest conference call, and an archive of discussions going all the way back to 2022. A lot of the community has been following the company since 2020. Here's the link to the latest earnings discussion:
I have been very hesitant to say anything about a different angle of the full potential I see as applicable for the SS Battery, but wonder if you might consider this and write something about it with your way with numbers?
I am speaking of the use by the U S military and the Police and Fire Departments simple application of existing ability to produce just the smaller version of the SS batteries in something like Panasonic's Toughbook.
I think the secrecy about a potential launch customer might very well be something like this, something I personally have read nothing about in any forum over the last few years of watching QS or any other would be SS Battery producers and yet the potential in the market is not only large , the customers in question are always very accustomed to paying exponentially higher prices for materials.
Thank you for your work showing realistic numbers for QS efforts.
I am one that has started building a QS position and believe they are close to real potential, especially for small hand tools and phones. I believe also they do have real potential for autos and stationary storage and the timelines for it, reflecting what you have shown for GWH scale, which also corresponds with Powerco's Gigafactory in Canada for 2027.
I wonder what you think regarding the smaller size battery potential might be, the phones and power tools?
Thanks,
Bill
There's definitely a lot of potential, and I think this year could have a lot of actionable catalysts. Maybe not in terms of shipping at scale, but the future of the company 'hangs in the balance' of whether or not Cobra really works or not. Should be an exciting next few quarters.
The limiting factor for consumer electronics will be zero pressure performance. Alpha 2 samples already showed a lot of promise there, but I think that'll come later. EVs seem to by their primary focus right now. But consumer electronics (phones, power tools, et al) could be a great use of resources at QS-0 specifically because it will probably never be a massive manufacturing line.
And I think you're right. I think we all want it to be Salzgitter starting this year or next - definitely possible - but Canada in 2027 makes a ton of sense. We'll definitely learn a lot at this coming earnings call!
Thanks Bill!
Hello Brian,
I wonder about your initial thoughts of the QS conference call yesterday?
I heard something I found curious when they continued to say they had to still continue to build out the "Cobra Line", yet also saying the following'
"With respect to process, in 2024, we made major strides with our next-generation Cobra separate and heat treatment process. The first version of Cobra equipment is already operating and thanks to dramatically better efficiency and process economics, Cobra will support increasing volumes of B1 samples in 2025 and serve as a key enabler to gigawatt or scale deployment of our technology.
On the product front, 2024 saw the debut of our industry-leading first product, the QSE-5 cell, boasting a combination of performance features, which demonstrates the compelling value of our technology platform. QSE-5 represents a no-compromise solid-state battery unmatched in the industry. In 2025, we will produce higher volume B1 samples of the QSE-5 product for our prospective launch customer and others."
Speaking specifically about the statement the first version of cobra already operating
Also the QS folks to willingly speak about Powerco and yet seemingly differentiate a different potential launch customer.
Any thoughts, am I looking too closes at their words?
Thanks,
Bill
Hi Bill!
A lot of good stuff came out of the call yesterday. I'm planning on doing a write up once I get a chance to go through it again and digest everything.
For your question on Cobra, my interpretation is that "Cobra", itself, is just the heat treatment step in the process. The rest of the production line (stacking, packaging, etc) needs to be either built out or modified to accommodate the faster speeds.
Regarding the anonymous new customers, I think that's just how it's done in the battery industry. It wouldn't surprise me if the new companies remain anonymous even after licensing deals are signed...maybe only becoming named after start of production of their own QS lines. My guess is that they do this because they have concurrent deals with other battery companies. Solid Power is teamed up with Ford, for example. If Ford were to sign a public deal with QS, it would probably damage their relationship with Solid Power. PowerCo is public because VW has been heavily invested in Quantumscape since QS was founded - so the relationship is already well known. Siva sounds serious about signing new customers this year, which is pretty exciting.
Also, there's a reddit community where I host a live discussion every quarter during the earnings call. There's tons of good stuff in there about the latest conference call, and an archive of discussions going all the way back to 2022. A lot of the community has been following the company since 2020. Here's the link to the latest earnings discussion:
https://www.reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock/comments/1io1uh1/2024_q4_earnings_discussion/
Cheers!
Brian
Hello again Brian,
I have been very hesitant to say anything about a different angle of the full potential I see as applicable for the SS Battery, but wonder if you might consider this and write something about it with your way with numbers?
I am speaking of the use by the U S military and the Police and Fire Departments simple application of existing ability to produce just the smaller version of the SS batteries in something like Panasonic's Toughbook.
I think the secrecy about a potential launch customer might very well be something like this, something I personally have read nothing about in any forum over the last few years of watching QS or any other would be SS Battery producers and yet the potential in the market is not only large , the customers in question are always very accustomed to paying exponentially higher prices for materials.
Just a thought in the early morning hours.
Later,
Bill