This will be the first in a series of posts looking at the size of different addressable markets for lithium ion batteries. Ideally, these studies should serve as a litmus test for where reasonable production rates could max out in the future. If, at any point going forward, I start assuming that Quantumscape has captured 80% of these market, you’ll know I’ve gone full Cathy Wood. And if there’s one rule in investing: you never go full Cathy Wood.
12 GWh is distant, but at the same time it's not that far away. They have their standing agreement with VW for up to 21 GWh, which clears the threshold by itself. They also have an "agreement" with another OEM for "up to 50 GWhs". I'm not sure if that's a handshake type of deal or a letter of interest or what.
But, if they could show, tomorrow, that they could reliably deliver GWh scale production that delivers everything that they claim in terms of performance specs, QS would have 70 GWh worth of capacity signed-on the following day.
But that's the issue, and what we're all waiting on.
You're right though. The potential is there. Just can they actually do it at scale is the question.
12 GWh is distant, but at the same time it's not that far away. They have their standing agreement with VW for up to 21 GWh, which clears the threshold by itself. They also have an "agreement" with another OEM for "up to 50 GWhs". I'm not sure if that's a handshake type of deal or a letter of interest or what.
But, if they could show, tomorrow, that they could reliably deliver GWh scale production that delivers everything that they claim in terms of performance specs, QS would have 70 GWh worth of capacity signed-on the following day.
But that's the issue, and what we're all waiting on.
You're right though. The potential is there. Just can they actually do it at scale is the question.